Country-level assessment of long-term global bioenergy potentialBiomass and Bioenergy

About

Authors
Yvonne Y. Deng, Michèle Koper, Martin Haigh, Veronika Dornburg
Year
2015
DOI
10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.12.003
Subject
Waste Management and Disposal / Agronomy and Crop Science / Forestry / Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

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nele K a Ecofys UK, 1 Alie Street, London E1 8DE, Un b Ecofys Netherlands, Kanaalweg15-G, 3526 K c Shell Scenarios Team, Shell International, Sh a r t i c l e i n f o

Article history: countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half net importers. lished by Elsevier Ltd. heavily on renewable energy sources to decarbonise and diversify our energy system [1e5]. In addition to renewable electricity, such as solar and wind power, energy from ay in any low-carbon roviding not only an t also for (industrial) as well as bio-based materials and chemicals. Estimates of the resource base have varied widely in the past, anything from zero to over 500 EJ has been reported [6]. A comprehensive and detailed

Abbreviations: GAI, gross annual increment; GHG, greenhouse gas; LIIB, low indirect impact biofuels; RF, recoverable fraction; RPR, residue-to-product ratio; SRES, IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios; SRREN, IPCC's Special Report on Renewable Energy. * Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 (0)207 4230 984; fax: þ44 (0)207 4230 9871.

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect .co b i om a s s a n d b i o e n e r g y 7 4 ( 2 0 1 5 ) 2 5 3e2 6 7E-mail address: y.deng@ecofys.com (Y.Y. Deng).1. Introduction

Long-term (mid-to-end of century) energy scenarios rely biomass will have a substantial role to pl energy system. It is a versatile source p option for sustainable transport fuels, bu heat and fuel or electricity production,of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become © 2015 Pubstands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments,Received 23 May 2014

Received in revised form 28 September 2014

Accepted 4 December 2014

Available online

Keywords:

Bioenergy

Potential

Global

Residues

Cropshttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2014.12. 0961-9534/© 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.ited Kingdom

L Utrecht, The Netherlands ell Centre, London, SE1 7NA, United Kingdom a b s t r a c t

Most long-term global energy scenarios rely on biomass for a variety of possible uses, but there is unlikely to be enough to replace the majority of fossil fuel use in all sectors.

Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial.

We present a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential, taking into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development, covering energy from both lignocellulosic and food crops as well as residues from agriculture and forestry. We have also gone beyond many other studies by analysing the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels.

We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15e70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30e140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40e190 EJ (130e400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity)Yvonne Y. Deng a,*, Mich oper b, Martin Haigh c, Veronika Dornburg cCountry-level assessment of lo bioenergy potential http: / /www.elsevier003g-term global m/locate/biombioe assessment of the available bioenergy potential is therefore essential to determining the contribution which biomass and biofuels can realistically make to the world's energy system.

The IPCC's Special Report on Renewable Energy (SRREN)

In contrast, the work in this paper presents a new piece of research, assessing the potential for all land-based biomass ultimately used as inputs for a model which required projections to 2100. The land-use and crop yield projections for the future years were based on the A2, B1 and B2 IPCC sceb i om a s s a n d b i o e n e r g y 7 4 ( 2 0 1 5 ) 2 5 3e2 6 7254(crops and residues) at global level butwith significant country level detail, for current and long-term land-use in one comprehensive consistent framework. This is the first study that attempts to quantify global land-based bioenergy resource based on country based assessment of available land and which calculates the actually usable, final energy biofuel potential. The results of this work have been used in the recently published Shell New Lens Scenarios [3].

The potential we identify here is a constrained technical potential, whether expressed as primary biomass or biofuels (either biodiesel or bioethanol). Constraints include sustainability, current competitive uses and accessibility. These have not been modelled explicitly but have been included in the assumptions of land availability (crops) and recoverable fraction. The competitive uses did not include increased future demands for bio-based chemicals and materials, i.e. such demands would have to be met from within the technical potential calculated here. 2. Methods

The analysis was performed at country level for the 55 countries, and in aggregate for the remaining countries. The 55 countries were selected to include the countries which were expected to have the largest suitable land areas for bioenergy production (based on their amount of grassland, cropland and forest) and to include enough countries in each region to cover a substantive share of that region (see Fig. 1). The 55 countries were grouped into 16 regions1 and some intermediary calculations were performed at this regional level. Land area per type and productivity2 values per crop were differentiated at country level, most other input assumptions were set at 1 The regions were Canada, USA, Central America, South

America, OECD Europe, Eastern Europe, Former USSR, Middle

East, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, Southern Africa, East Asia,

South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, Rest of World.recently summarised the existing literature on biomass potential estimates [7]. Several studies have attempted to quantify bioenergy potentials in the past [8e22] but these have been either:  Meta-studies like the IPCC SRREN report, rather than calculations from first principles [8e11]  Assessing potential in one or several regions only, not spanning the full global potential [12,13]  Assessing potential at regional or global level only, without significant differentiation at country level [11,14e21]  Assessing only current potential or only potential on one particular type of land only [22]2 We use the term ‘productivity’ to mean yield of biomass per amount of land in tonne/ha throughout this article.narios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) from the integrated assessment model IMAGE [21,23]. The work presented here presents an incremental advance over other bioenergy studies based on these IMAGE scenarios [15,16,21].